Watch For Dust People: 5 Lines Of Defense.

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“You don’t have to try to keep the tears back.

You couldn’t cry if you wanted to. You couldn’t cry if you wanted to.

Even your thoughts are dust.

Even your thoughts are dust.”

Lucinda Williams

The Dusters thrive among us.

In the misty whirlwind of false, trenchant phrases and guy-hemorrhaging head games you’ll be captured.

The haze created by the escape, their false feelings that conclude in emotional entrapment, will set the outer reaches of your soul ablaze like high velocity, ghost-pepper shots to the eyes.

The singed ends of nerves you never knew you had will explode in dry fire, like staccato firecrackers going off in a cloying sulfur-mist tethered by a humid summer sky.

The lies will choke off your oxygen.

Your capacity to think straight will evaporate.

You’ll feel yourself shrivel from the inside out.

shriveled man

Because you’re gagging on dry death. 

Helplessly falling into the cracks of the parched splintered arteries.

Ground into a foundation of splintered bones and pulverized hearts.

And you won’t. Even. Know. It.

By the time you get it, you’ll be dried out completely.

The hour, the minute, the month, the year you’re shaken from their lives.

As they move to the next dirt destination.

You’ll re-live each terrifying moment.

So you see.

Sadly, you must understand.

Fresh victims are plentiful.  Always close.  In the wings. Waiting to be dried and shaken while you’re stirred.

Before a Duster rolls down to a new pubic town (population YOU).

Before they release you to a wind that flows on apathy and stinks with the rot of deceit.

Another poor soul is near.

Unaware.

This group? Get to know who they are.

Society is overrun with them.

They feed on on others to build themselves. They fire up egos. Their own.

The Dusters.

Beware of them.

Let me show you the way.

Let me help you understand.

Allow me to help you avoid the dusters.

Because.

If you’re a victim?

****************************************

dust people two

                  You’re gone already. 

It’s called an expiration date and it’s on your head right from the get go.

Random Thoughts:

Dusters don’t feel remorse. Apathy. Or anything.  The antics, every thought they possess, is based on an end game first. the grand exit. They re-live the escape plan. The goal for them is to leave with more than they entered your life with. Their timing is perfect.

Right from the start you are in a burning house with the door padlocked shut.

Dried meat. Turned into a jerk(y).

Oh who knows what keeps them around, sometimes for years.

I rattle this around in my head every day.

Good sex, a sympathetic ear, a travel bud, shared business contacts, an image boost, outright free stuff, a paycheck for nothing, a friendship controlled for personal gain.

Who knows?

The Dusters are indeed a diverse bunch. The breed is a non-partisan feeder.

They come from all walks of life.

Frankly, they represent an epidemic. One that’s going to be around a while because the ongoing deterioration into a Tinder culture demands it. And I fear it’s just begun.

I fear there are more of them than us, now.

So the odds are they will come for you, too.

You’re gonna get dusted.

It’s just a matter of time. The day you’re shaken, swept out to the dustbin of the past.

Once Dusters have gotten what they need from you or something/someone else to play with, you are dust (dead) to them.

And if  you’re stupid or unfortunate enough to fall in love with a Duster, you’ll ignore the signs because nobody can be that evil, right?

Wrong.

So. So. Wrong.

Dust storm #1– Dusters create grandiose exit-preparation stories. It’s a first assault. An initial test of your resolve. It’s an attack on your sanity. A Duster wants to gauge the power of your commitment to stick with them long enough to be damaged. Because you see, it’s not a conscious effort to hurt.

It’s a part of who they are.

So, let me ask – How much can you handle?

Duster victims are steadfast suckers.

Others are smart and flee quick.

Who are you?

stop stop

Dusters swirl words into flirty-dirty demons that revolve around and within you. It’s a tactic designed to confuse a victim before the slaughter.

Since Dusters don’t trust their own actions, naturally they can’t trust yours. In addition, they have not completely shaken the packed-on remnants of past particles (which is interesting) because they abhor how some of their victims have moved on to healthy relationships.

How dare they???

dust_by_forgottenx

You can’t make Dusters feel bad because they can’t feel. Anything. People who can’t help them and those who have outlived their usefulness are swiftly discarded.

You’re an ash in a flash.

Their love is not permanent. Frankly, there’s no such thing as love (outside of self) for this cancerous spin-off of the species. Oh, they’ll say they love you, they’ll promise long term just to keep you in the storm, as they’re not quite done with your bloody carcass, yet.

It’s like that monster grizzly. You know – In the DiCaprio film “The Revenant.”

Just when you’re convinced he’s finished tearing out your neck, ripping open your back, dragging you like a puppy toy, THE BEAR RETURNS. THE MAULING RESUMES. NO MERCY.

Each lie, a claw to the face: They’ll be a friend forever (slash). They’re working for you (slash #2). They have your back (final gash). Actions prove different. Over and over again.

Love does not reside in their core. It’s not at home there. It dies before it’s able to breach the wall.

The warm fuzzies are icy-knife-ies.

The world is indeed their stage and you’re merely rolling across, stuck in it, used in it, then released from it.

dust world They’re comin’, they’re comin’!

Dust storm #2: Duster emotions are fleeting, float light on the breeze, subject to change in a blink. There’s nothing in the soul when it comes to feelings.

Remember – Duster’s are always on the move even when still, constantly searching for exits. Lusting for the water of another’s life because the newest victims are the juiciest!

It’s how they prosper. Duster victims are flesh commodities.

Dust a dozen.

There are so many choices, so many people they can dry out, it’s like a feeding frenzy.

“Harvest time, all the time,”is their motto.

And surprise!

Look who’s on the menu..

human menu

Dusters are ghosts, shells of humans with important stuff missing. People are nothing to them unless you have something they desire. When a Duster shakes you off, it’s done with rehearsed platitudes, false language of leaving they’ve recycled from the dusty remnants of other departures. They’ll even fool your relatives. Suck in the kids!

Dusters thrive deep in finances.  They’re the cuts you never do anything about. They’re stealth hits that keep on hitting. Recently, I received an e-mail for fees, an auto-renewal from a service it took me 3 hours to cancel.

Most would rather have their money turn to dust before they halt this auto-finance terrorism. Take a day. Stop all auto-payments. Gain control. I know consumers who have lost hundreds, thousands, robo-paying for services they never use because it’s easier to pay than to stop. Huh? No.

Dusters rarely say “I’m sorry,” or admit mistakes. And why should they? You should bow. Die noble in their grace. Just dust, bury yourself before they get to it. After all, they’re terrific. You’re the reason they’re fucked up, remember?

As a matter of fact they’ll make you feel wrong for being right.

Remember that line from the classic film “Love Story?”

Love-Story.png

Yea, it’s nothing like that.

Not at all.

Identify Dusters with 3 simple inquiries. No kidding. To kill a Duster you must be the Duster (not for long because that’s not you).

Keep it simple. The best deaths occur in plain sight. Every minute. Not even Kojak would be able to figure it out.

kojak

Keep sucking, buddy. You won’t catch me!

Tell me about your long-term friendships. Dusters have few close friendships to speak of. That’s not a bad thing on the surface. Loners can be cool. You just want to get a handle on the quality of the relationships. How a Duster defines them.

If you can’t adequately get a handle on why and how these friendships are maintained, step back. If there appears to be a pattern of breakage and it’s always the fault of others, well you know what to do, right?

Describe your last break-up in detail, please. Dusters are expert ghosters. They refuse to face a victim in person, or communicate verbally, on a forever departure. They conjure up lame-ass, re-hashed excuses through e-mail or other electronic channels. This query is your most insanity-driven dive into the Duster psyche. Stay strong. You’re going in deep.

Break-ups aren’t perfect. You’re not looking for clean, neat separations. You’re seeking to identify respect for a former partner in the throes of a heartbreaking life episode.

Dusters hold below-zero respect for people who love them, especially at goodbye time.

Remember, this is their heart, a life code: They want to slap-clap you off their tails. Like they would from their jeans after a long journey on a dirty mud-cut of ground.

Tell me about something, an incident, you’re sorry about. My personal favorite. You know why? Because Dusters are rarely sorry. About anything! After all, it’s never them. Be sensitive to a consistent string of “remorse code.”

Let me explain.

Remorse codes are strings of negative roads well traveled.The same circle patterns of mistakes. Ghost-like breakups, busted engagements, cheating. Could be they’re tough heartfelt lessons. Perhaps your Duster has vowed never to do this to you. Or maybe you’re delusional and the next stop on the heartbreak express.

Have you fooled yourself, convinced yourself that it’ll be different with you?

Question: Are you up for the risk?

Are you willing to take the chance?

Well, if you do.

Then:

_ _ . _ _ _ _.. … ._ _. . . _ ..

(Morse Code for Godspeed).

morse code

It’s not Morse Code, it’s Remorse Code. Silly.

Dusters feel guilt but it’s merely an odd form of self-flagellation. A seemingly strange internal coping mechanism. A futile effort to connect with what’s shoe-string left of their humanity (who am I kidding?). There’s a peculiar sadness that arises their victims move on. Re-hydrate.

The ones who escape really irritate them. So much so they can’t visit the ground zeroes, the towns, where these survivors survive.  They feel something odd – REMORSE. Well, only because the ones left behind made it through the pain parlor. Their happiness, their recovery is Kryptonite.

Go figure.

Dust storm #3: Dusters will lament to you about the love or friend who got away. How they’ve mourned. How bad they feel. Really? They don’t. Take it as a warning. A brief wet spot they sit in with us three-dimensional mortals. It’s a worm hole you must crawl through. Listen. Discover. Run!

Dusters relish the stories they create. With disparate mental fragments of dark plot-lines, they form a sick square-fits-in-a-hole puzzle designed to validate an exit strategy, a distrust, even a hatred of their prey.

Dusters believe all people are bad so they must strike.

Destroy them first. Always.

Dusters are narcissists who frolic with sharp blades yet never cut themselves. They are expert slicers, compart-mentalists, molders.  They’ll work diligently to galvanize fellow Dusters against you to protect their personal lack of accountability and courage.

I tested this theory recently. I placed my head on the chopping block. It’s in the bloody basket. Rotting. It turned out exactly as I figured it would.

They are steadfast cowards at intimate human interaction, connection, above all else.

basketcase

Great movie from the 1980s: Basket Case.

It’s personally rewarding to discover people who are so damn good at Duster detection and deft at avoiding attacks from Dusters and their fuck-flunkies (not a dance move from the 1970s, or is it?).

I unfortunately, am not one of those special people, proficient in these skills.

Dusters will push, twist you into a different person. A human you’ll no longer recognize. The ultimate betrayal, the way they depart, the manner in which they leave frayed ends dangling like bloody entrails on a clothesline at a zombie laundry party, will drive you insane, out of your own skull.

You won’t recognize yourself. Your pets will avoid you. You smell different.

It’ll take time to return to the light, the living, the waters. The clear. The still.

Like a storm on the plains they’ll lift, carry, then drop you like a rag doll.

One day it’ll happen, you’ll look up. You’ll stop dragging what’s left of yourself across a gravel road and start all over.

You’ll be boarding the life train again. Sniff the spice off a summer breeze.

The light of day will no longer feel like night.

Oh, you’ve been there.

Sometimes it feels like exposed nerves are rubbing against broken and infected parts of my heart.

I wish Johnny Cash were still alive.

I would have loved to share my dust theory with him.

Would my thoughts be set to lyrical magic?

How would he take the words. Improve them?

Hmm, maybe this?

Dusters.

In this world.

As a new day bursts blue. Clear-on-clear.

They have their smoke eye on you.

For now.

I’ll wish you good thoughts.

I’ve walked there. I fear the footfalls.

And when the time arrives for you to be a target.

Or no longer play with the player.

Perhaps you’ll remember my words.

Heed the warnings.

Consider and respect my ongoing torment.

And dust the Dusters at their own dirty game.

I’m on your side.

Breathe in deep.

As deep can be.

Hold.

Release.

Walk.

Now you’re steady.

Prepared.

Thriving.

Dust free.

And a connect with the universe again.

Where it’s cool and clean.

And calm again.

dust free

*****************************************************************

Sidebar: The Dusters know who they are. They know this post is about them, don’t they?

They’re reading right now. In denial. Ready to strike. 

Listen. Learn:

Lucinda Williams’ Dust.

Writing is part of my healing process . A closure activity.

I hope ya’ll enjoyed this lil’ ditty.

Dedicated to my very clever friend – Tami Denny. 

Five Lessons from an Urban Supermarket.

Random Thoughts of a Money Muse

Damn you Google Maps, Google Earth, Google Detectives: Damn you all to hell!

heston damn you

The first/best “DAMN YOU ALL TO HELL!” ever. The original “Planet of the Apes.” I believe Hollywood has had the balls to remake this film like three times. 

Eckhart Tolle, known as the “father of inner peace” should be arch nemesis of this Google invasion of privacy, but I’m thinking he’s way too self-actualized to even sweat the effort. I can hear him – “who needs this Google you speak of?”

To arrest a mind troubled by the lambasting of ego, an individual must seize the now, the present. Today. This moment.

I’m sorry ET – I’m a work in progress. Always evolving. BUT THAT DAMN GOOGLE.

Tolle ego

Allows me, so easily, to scope out the physical landmarks from my history. It tempts me to unlock doors I prefer remain closed. Behind that granite-like barrier in my mind…

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Three Financial Lies that can Reset or Ruin your Retirement.

A version of this writing appears in MarketWatch’s Retirement Weekly.

The financial sector still gets a bad rap.

Seven years after the financial crisis.

Justifiably so.

banker hand cuffs

In his 2013 book “Finance & The Good Society,” economist Robert Shiller describes a utopia where finance can benefit today’s society. He identifies how financial innovations of the past, like insurance and pensions for example, improved the lives of the masses. The lauded professor at Yale shares his suggestions about the future of finance and how the industry can reform and prosper by serving the common good.

Can you imagine?

Yea, me neither.

I’m sorry to be cynical but you have a better chance of finding a unicorn in your driveway and taking it for a trot over a magical rainbow.

unicorn

The halcyon days for finance are over.

Today, in the shadow of the Great Recession, forgotten by Wall Street and insidiously faded into the fog of averages, the financial industry is more than ever a marketing machine designed to convince the masses to purchase products they don’t need and to stick with investments that offer more risk for less reward.

The pundits seek to convince, not enlighten. They warn (scare) that if we don’t invest in the manner they suggest, we are in great danger of outliving our money, the boogey-man of inflation will inevitably arise from under our cash and devour our nest egg while we sleep.

From behind their manipulated statistics, these ‘experts’ communicate in serious tones a cozy belief that your household balance sheet has recovered from the Great Recession.

You know better.

Now, more than any other period since 2008, retirees and those near retirement, are vulnerable to the lies that appear pervasively in financial media.

Survival depends on you knowing the difference between white lies that don’t matter and dark fabrications that have the potential to derail your retirement planning.

There are three financial lies you must ignore to preserve your wealth right now.

 Lie #1 – Cash is trash.

Many financial talking heads consider holding cash dangerous to their livelihoods. Why maintain cash when money could be allocated to expensive managed accounts or locked up in investment vehicles where ongoing fees can be charged.

These cunning souls know if they can convince you to remain invested at all times, especially when markets are sliding, then the financial firms they represent can continue to make a predictable revenue stream to appease shareholders.

The Real Value of Cash

The experts hope you fall victim to the behavioral pitfall labeled anchoring.  When emotionally connected to a loss, you’ll wait for that losses to recover to your original purchase price before taking action, even if the current value reflects a change in fundamentals. The opportunity cost of sticking with losing investments and waiting for recovery can be detrimental to your financial health.

Gregory L. Morris, author of “Investing With The Trend,” showcases how it takes on average, five years to recover from a 20% loss in stock prices (as represented by the S&P 500). Five years can add up to a healthy stream of fees if you ‘stick with the program.’ Don’t you think?

So, let me ask: How many five-year periods can you survive in the span of a human life, to break even?

Never underestimate the value of cash as a component of your long-term asset allocation.

Mainstream media will never embrace the concept of holding cash. They’ll tout long-term returns as the reason to remain invested in both good times and bad. Most individuals lack the “time” necessary to truly capture 30 to 60-year stock return averages.

For individuals trying to save for retirement, there are several important considerations with respect to cash as an asset class:

  1. Cash is an effective hedge against market loss. 
  2. Cash provides an opportunity to take advantage of market declines.
  3. Cash provides stability during times of uncertainty (reduces emotional mistakes)

It doesn’t mean you should be 100% in cash. Holding an increased allocation to cash during periods of uncertainty provides both stability and future opportunity.

When inflation is low and stock valuations as measured by Robert Shiller’s CAPE ratio is at 23x earnings which has historically represented the peak of secular bull markets, the significance of holding cash is revealed.

As the chart above outlines, if you purchase stocks when the CAPE is 6x and switch to cash at 23x, the adjusted return of $100 increases dramatically over time. Of course, cash will lose out during periods of above average inflation like in the 1970s, however holding and investing cash during periods of low valuations produced substantial outperformance compared to waiting for lost capital to recover.

At this juncture, increasing portfolio cash to 20-30% to weather the storm will not kill your returns. As a matter of fact, your portfolio will survive. You won’t need to alter your retirement plans.

Lie #2: Stocks average 10% a year.

SP total returns holding period

This lie may be the most lethal. Recently, I heard a pundit on a popular financial channel flippantly throw out a statement to an afternoon television audience. He said not to worry: Stocks average 10% a year if you hold tight.

Currently on their Twitter feed, a popular roboadviser called WealthFront which is an electronic portfolio asset allocator, regularly shares a chart alone and within blog posts. It shows how the growth of a dollar invested in the stock market appreciates to roughly $34,000 if invested from 1871 through 2015.

1871.

The president of the United States was Ulysses S. Grant.

Orville Wright of the Wright Brothers was born in August of that year.

Is 10% completely false. No.

Misleading, yes.

Is it realistic to base return assumptions for retirement planning on numbers many pundits share in the national media?

No.

From 1871 to present the total nominal return was 8.08% versus just 6.86% on a “real” adjusted for inflation basis. While the percentages may not seem like much, over such a long period the ending value of the original $1000 investment was lower by an astounding $270 million dollars.

Since 1900, stock market appreciation plus dividends has provided investors with an average return of roughly 10% per year. Historically, 4%, or 40% of the total return, came from dividends. The remaining return (60%), came from capital appreciation that averaged 6%.

There are several fallacies with the notion that the markets long-term compound at 10% annually.

The market does not return 10% every year. There are many years where market returns have been sharply higher, significantly lower or flat lined.

The analysis does not include the real world effects of inflation, taxes, fees, and other expenses that subtract from total returns.

SHOCKER – You don’t have 144 years to invest. Using ‘perpetual’ holdings periods for something as finite as a human life is plain irresponsible.

Lie #2 will allow false hope to permeate your retirement planning outcomes. Incorporating unrealistic return projections increases the likelihood of shortfall surprises later in retirement. Perhaps at an age where returning to work is highly unfeasible.

Then what?

This whopper will indeed sneak up on you. If you’re three years from retirement or in retirement, now’s the time to re-visit the return estimates that were used in your financial planning analysis.

 Lie #3: Annuities = bad.

For years, several well-known money managers and syndicated financial superstars, have overwhelmed print, social, television and weekend radio media outlets with negative and false information about annuities.

It’s like saying repeatedly – a paycheck for life should always be avoided.

The wide universe of annuities are given an unfair rap as financial professionals with an agenda play on investor misunderstanding. With irresponsible blanket statements like ‘annuities are high commission and good for brokers, not for you,’ this group exploits the masses’ ignorance for their own gain.

They play on a human behavioral pitfall called heuristics. Heuristics are mental shortcuts we employ to digest the onslaught of information we’re slammed with daily. As busy individuals with access to limited information, we create rules of thumb to quickly come to conclusions and make decisions.

Annuities, specifically variable annuities, a blend of insurance and mutual funds, have been the subject of bad press and regulatory scrutiny for decades. Justifiably so. With exorbitant fees and generous commission structures these products were sold inappropriately in many documented cases.

Today, novice recipients of the adverse messages recall how they were told, read or heard somewhere that annuities must be avoided. So it must be true.

What an injustice to investors who would benefit from these products.

To mitigate the risk of outliving a nest egg or as a replacement for conservative investments like bonds, deferred-income and immediate annuities can be used effectively to supplement Social Security and portfolios that cannot carry the retirement income responsibilities alone. These annuity types are affordable and can play an important role in a holistic financial plan.

To understand the truth about annuities avoid the ‘real story’ touted in media and advertising. There’s something ‘Fisher’ about this bullshit. As in Ken Fisher.

Instead, check out your resident state’s department of insurance website for objective information. Meet with a Certified Financial Planner who is compensated on an hourly fee basis to understand annuity types and to determine if a lifetime income option, in addition to Social Security, is suitable for your personal situation.

Unfortunately, dystopia thrives within the financial industry.

Now more than ever.

As we appear to be entering the storm of a bear market in stocks.

To survive you must dig deeper, stay vigilant, possess a healthy dose of skepticism.

Because pundits will not disappear as quickly as your wealth can.

And finance and the good society shall remain just a fairy tale.

All charts are the courtesy of Clarity’s Financial Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts.

Rules To Live & Die By: Life, Money & Otherwise.

Aside

I appreciate rules.

Rules derived from the heart and mind have saved me.

Rules, forged from experience, can safeguard precious resources – financial and otherwise.

They will protect you from losing your pants.

just got naked

Naked rules are best.

Pure, simple, raw.

Here are mine.

What are yours?

 

Random Thoughts:

Part I: Life Rules.

my life my rules

 

If a woman can’t listen to the Eagles’song Lyin’ Eyes without wincing, or quickly changes the station, run.

Beware of people who carry a stash of ’emergency’ condoms (indeed run, but feel free to have sex first).

You can’t wipe your ass enough (especially men – we’re the worst). When you believe it’s all clear in the deep, take another swipe. Just to be safe.

Never trust a person who rarely uses turn signals.

Be cautious of those who judge based on past mistakes when they’ve made the same ones or worse.

Don’t step back without looking (there’s a dog there, especially in the kitchen).

Never let open wine go to waste. Never. (Did I say never?).

Distrustful people are black pitch through the soul. Avoid them.

Be wary of those who can’t maintain close long-term relationships of any kind.

When I ignore rules I create, bad things happen.

Misjudgments remain with me. I see injury in the mirror every day. I lose a spark that will most likely, never return. Perhaps it’s part of a natural process, like aging.

Living without a personal guide book can hurt you.

Along with Clarity’s Chief Market Strategist Lance Roberts, we’ve created rules to help you protect and understand the key drivers of your wealth.

Remember – For every beginning there is an end. Investments have a shelf life. Eventually you’ll need to liquidate them to fulfill a financial goal, create a paycheck in retirement, gift to loved ones. Whatever. Money is to be spent, enjoyed.

Not hoarded.

And yes, you can indeed sell investments to protect capital.

Huh? What?

Sell: The scariest 4-letter word on Wall Street.  Just the mention of it and you’re branded a loon. Leprotic, running amok and licking the neighborhood children.

Part II: Investment Rules:

Cut losers short. Let winners run. Underperforming positions are reduced or removed from portfolios on rallies.

Set financial life benchmarks and take action. Every position purchased has a sell target. Investments without goals are arbitrary, which increases portfolio risk.

Emotional biases are not part of the investment management process.

Follow the trend. 80% of portfolio performance is determined by the underlying trend.

And the current trend is south. 

SP500-MarketUpdate-011516-2.png

When markets break their long-term bullish trend supports combined with important long-term sell signals and a sharp decline in momentum, it has historically denoted the start of a “bear market trend.” The red highlight denotes the start of the bear market. The yellow highlight shows the ensuing bear market completion.

Never let a profit turn into a “loss.”

Investment discipline is successful if consistently followed.

Losses are part of the investment process. Losing positions are regularly culled to reduce portfolio risk and free up capital for better investment selections. However, you can’t completely avoid losses. Sorry. If that’s the case you’re better off in certificates of deposit. You can minimize but not eliminate. You play, you pay.

Math-Of-Loss-122115.png

As fiduciaries of OTHER PEOPLE’S money, the biggest concern is not how much money we make during market advances, but rather how much we keep from losing during market declines.

While this seems counter-intuitive, in reality it is where long-term gains are generated. As William Lippman, CEO of Investment Management at Franklin Templeton quipped:

“Better to preserve capital on the downside rather than outperform on the upside”

A strict discipline of portfolio risk management will NOT eliminate all losses in portfolios. However, it will minimize the capital destruction to a level that can be dealt with logically, rather than emotionally.

This isn’t market timing, people. That doesn’t work. ‘All-or-none’ is a losing strategy. Never go all cash. From a management standpoint, this is a bad idea. Trying to “time the market” is impossible over the long-term and leads to very poor emotionally based decision making.

The objective is to reduce portfolio risk to manageable levels to preserve capital over time. We can do that by increasing and reducing our exposure to equity-related risk by paying attention to the price trends of the market.Odds of success greatly improve when the fundamentals are confirmed by the technical indicators (see? Another rule).

Don’t add to a losing position. This is called “averaging down” and rarely is it effective. How many investors are caught in the energy sector value trap? Or treated master limited partnerships ‘safe’ as fixed instruments?

The slide has been ugly and getting uglier.

XLE-011516

Don’t be a hero. Buying energy or “averaging down” at this juncture will most likely be hazardous to your wealth.

Markets are “bullish” or “bearish.” Remain neutral or long in bull markets. In bear markets be neutral and increase cash.

When markets or portfolio positions are trading at extreme deviations from long term trends, do the opposite of “the herd.”

If you haven’t trimmed positions yet –Wait for an opportune time. Most likely, a  market bounce is coming. Trim your weakest holdings into strength especially if your gut is in turmoil or you’re 5 years or closer to retirement.

A goal of portfolio management is to achieve a 70% success rate. No process is perfect. Consistency wins the long game.

Manage risk and volatility, not returns. Also, manage emotions. Humans are not wired to invest. Knee-jerk reactions, overconfidence, seeing trends that don’t exist will only destroy portfolio returns.

Never discount the importance of financial planning. The investment process is an element of a financial plan. An important one. However, it’s not the full story. It’s the sexiest chapter, I know.

There’s more to consider.

So we created.

Part III: Clarity’s Financial Planning Rules.

Take a holistic approach. Proper planning integrates all assets, liabilities and sources of income for a complete perspective.

Money is fungible. For planning to be effective, remove the mental boundaries around the dollars you earn and save so they may be allocated to their highest and best use.

Don’t discount Social Security strategies. Take steps to maximize earned benefits. Coordinate Social Security withdrawals with those of other accounts to minimize the impact of taxes.

Healthcare costs including Medicare, and senior housing options must be included in the planning process.

Successful plans are grounded in financial self-awareness which includes prioritizing needs and wants.

Conversations with loved ones and friends about aspects of your financial plan are important. Make sure your estate, gifting and future housing intentions are clearly communicated.

Don’t Get Fooled By Averages. The financial markets do not return 8% a year. A realistic financial plan includes variability in returns, including losses, over time.

Accountability Matters. A financial plan not followed is not a financial plan at all. Long term financial goals need to be broken down into monthly objectives and you and your adviser are accountable in meeting those objectives. (It is easier to consider a savings goal of $500/month versus $6000/yr.) Mental trickery works. Milestones broken down to millstones will convince your brain to take action. Move forward.

Rules.

Boundaries.

They work.

Follow them.

Survive.

With less wear on your face.

Less dark circles under the eyes.

You’ll preserve joy in your heart.

Stamina.

Will be yours.

And you’ll live to play another day.

For a glossy (fancy) copy of our investment and planning rules email me at RichardRosso@myclarityfinancial.com.

Charts by Lance Roberts. Sign up for his weekly market/economic newsletter at http://www.realinvestmentadvice.com.

10 Resolutions in ’16: Simple Steps to Your Financial Best.

Most likely money is at the top of your resolution list – Whether it’s to increase savings, pay down debts, find a new job, purchase a house or auto, financial aspirations abound in January.

Resolutions start strong. Unfortunately, as the novelty of a new year fades, so does motivation to stick to a list.

happy new year vintage

What if I told you that financial goals don’t need to be onerous to make an impact to your bottom line.

Millstones, as I call them, lead to milestones. You’ll be empowered, less frustrated if you keep your financial improvement list simple.

Here are ten ideas to consider for 2016.

Finally ditch the brick and mortar bank. An unusual event occurred after the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by a quarter-point after seven years of holding steadfast to a zero interest rate policy. Several banks were quick to increase lending rates to creditworthy customers but kept deposit rates unchanged.

Historically, deposit rates on savings accounts, certificates of deposit, and money markets tend to correlate with changes in federal funds rates. Not this time. Savers lose again. In 2016 take a stand. Transfer your emergency cash or savings to a virtual bank. Online banks are FDIC-insured and with less overhead costs, offer attractive yields compared to a bank with physical bank locations. Several offer ATM fee rebates, too. Check out Nerdwallet’s list of top high-yield online savings accounts.

Keep an eye out for yet another refinancing opportunity. I know – Most financial ‘pundits’ are claiming higher interest rates in 2016. I see a sluggish economy ahead. Since mortgage rates are driven by demand and moves in the ten-year Treasury rate, don’t be surprised if 2016 provides another chance to refinance your home mortgage. A decision to refinance should be based on additional monthly savings and how long it will take to breakeven after closing costs. An easy-to-use refinancing calculator is available at www.zillow.com.

Initiate a balance transfer. According to Nerdwallet, the average American household carries $15,355 in credit card debt. Be proactive in 2016 and move your high-interest debt to a balance transfer credit card. If your household credit card balances are $5,000 or greater, consider reducing retirement contributions to the company match and direct additional cash to paying off credit card debt.

Use smartphone applications to save on purchases and track spending. Make technology your financial partner in 2016. Use the Mint app to track financial activity, Shopkick to browse products and find deals at major retailers. Download Ibotta, an Android and IPhone app that allows users to unlock rebates to earn cash on purchases.  

Buy off-season. Maintain an ‘off-kilter’ sense of finance. Purchase holiday décor and greeting cards after the respective season. Think Christmas cards in January. Shop for real estate during winter, summer items in the fall, and so on. Thepeacefulmom.com has thoroughly researched and lists by month the best times to buy everything.

Do a better job protecting your identity. Avoid public Wi-Fi to access secure information or shop, password protect your electronic devices and check your credit card statements monthly for suspicious activity. Place a freeze on your credit files with the three major credit bureaus. Before applying for credit a freeze can be removed easily using a password or PIN. There may fees to initiate security freezes. However, costs are nominal ($5-$10) and worth it to protect against identity theft. The Federal Trade Commission offers a FAQ  page to make it easier to understand how credit freezes work.

Check your credit report. Every January make it a habit to check your credit report for free at www.annualcreditreport.com. Examine your report closely for discrepancies and rectify promptly with the credit reporting agencies. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau outlines common credit report errors to identify.

Curb your impulses. Make 2016 the year of the wait. Before a purchase of greater than $50, delay for 7 days. If you still want the item or service after the wait period, move forward. Holding off will reduce impulse spending and allow you to think before spending. Seven days has been an effective time frame from my experiences with people I counsel. If super-ambitious, wait 14 days. If you can’t wait days, at least give the decision 24 hours.

Purchase a shredder. Simple identify theft solutions remain effective. Shredding documents should be an ongoing exercise. Shredders are inexpensive. Invest in a micro-cut shredder for maximum security protection. I’m shocked by the number of times I’m told that shredding seems unnecessary. Throwing intact personal documents, bills, statements in the trash is asking for trouble.

Develop a money principle. Dig deep. Early in the year is a great opportunity to develop or fine-tune a money philosophy. Keep your thoughts short. Make them passionate. Consider how money fits positively in your life and what you can do to reach goals, control spending, reduce debts or earn a higher income this year.

Financial resolutions are strongest when simple. Consider these 10 small steps to financial enrichment and live a fiscally healthy new year.

 

 

The Shuffle: How To Make The Best Out Of Those Gift Cards.

 

A version of this writing appeared on Nerdwallet.com, Money.com & NASDAQ.com.

Every year a staggering $1 billion in gift card balances remain unused according to www.cardhub.com.

No wonder retailers love them. They rack up the sales.

Consumers get shortchanged by their own actions!

This year it’s time to be smarter and maximize the use of gift cards.

Here’s how:

Spend the entire balance at once. Consumers want their gift cards to last as longer as possible. We have a strong tendency to ‘hoard’ balances until we forget the card, lose track of the balance or the card expires.

Unlike having a saving or spending discipline, this is your time to SPLURGE.

splurge

Spend the entire balance at once. At a single location. Make a list of what you plan to purchase and go for it.

Go over the line. Here I am a money guy advising you to spend! Don’t attempt to be too cute and come in at or under the limit of the gift card. Remember your goal is to spend every dollar and not add to the $6 billion in unused balances. Set a boundary. I recommend 10-15 dollars above the limit to assure you’ve fully exhausted the balance.

Employ a smartphone partner. Through the free RAISE app you can sell your gift card balance (for a discount). Also, before you shop a favorite retailer check RAISE first to see if discounted gifts cards are available.

For example, I had a client find a $100 gift card to Home Depot for $65.

What a deal! Use gift cards year round to shop.

Request or send eGift Cards. Trash the plastic! EGift cards are electronic gift cards delivered through e-mail, text, social media or mobile applications. Most digital gift cards can be used in stores.

They’re easy to send, receive, and most important your balances can be tracked real time which means you’re more likely to spend your balances in full.

Check out www.giftcards.com, a comprehensive hub of information on how EGift cards work, how to personalize them, how to redeem and which ones top-ranked.

Set your own gift card expiration date. Forget the expiration date mandated by the issuer (yes, gift cards may have expiration dates). Set your own. I suggest no longer than one month from the date the gift card was received otherwise the odds of a balance going unused forever increases greatly.

Once your personal expiration date has been reached, sell your balance at www.cardcash.com. Recently, I reached a personal expiration with a $50 Kohl’s gift card. I sold it for $41.

Just follow three steps to get an offer, submit your gift card information, receive money once the order is confirmed and the card’s balance is verified. Quick and easy.

Over $138 billion is spent annually on gift cards. Sales are expected to grow at least 6% annually through 2017 according to the latest CardHub statistics on the gift card market.

So, a gift card balance should never go to waste again.

Not on your watch, anyway.

on watch

5 Ways To Be Pet-Savvy & Money Smart This Holiday.

A version of this writing appears in MarketWatch’s Retirement Weekly.

puppy antlersThe stockings full of toys and treats, new collars, novelty costumes, sweaters, holiday photographs and personalized tree decorations.

The list can take a bite out of your holiday budget.

This year I polled 500 pet owners and discovered they’ll spend a record average $125 on their wet-nosed companions this holiday season. An increase of 13% over 2014. According to the American Pet Product Association, Americans spend in excess of $5 billion dollars annually on holiday gifts for pets.

I’m guilty of overspending. It’s not only my fur family that gets spoiled. Animals awaiting good homes in shelters benefit from my generosity, too.

It’s easy to get carried away as spending on our pets generates feelings of well-being.

I discovered ways to be in greater control and exercise money smarts this season and yet still fulfill my need to pamper and delight.

Here are some money-savvy ways to collar your pet spending for the holidays.

Random Thoughts:

Upgrade food and treats to reduce long-term pet care expenses. Don’t skimp on the quality of food and treats to save money. Here’s why – Pet healthcare costs are increasing at a rapid rate. For those I counsel, roughly 11 percent a year.

Nutrition-dense, high-quality foods may keep your pet healthier for a longer period and help you minimize large medical bills later. Think of it as part of a preventative health regimen for your four-legged brethren.

Chemically-processed food is disruptive to pet health.  According to the International Boarding & Pet Services Association, better food provides an overall boost in the immune system and improved health over the long term with less stress on a pet’s organs. The cost of higher quality food over the life of a pet will be offset by lower veterinary bills and reduced risk of health issues that are a result of improper nutrition. Meat or meat meal should be the primary ingredients with minimal grains.

There are several ways to save on the cost of quality pet food and treats. The simplest way is to receive e-mail updates directly from the manufacturer. For example, www.merrickpetcare.com is a high-quality provider. They provide special offers and product updates for consumers who join their mailing list.

Shop online at www.petfooddirect.com for sale items on name brands and save at least 15% when you establish auto-ship on many high-quality varieties of food and treats.

Investigate pet insurance options as you shop for holiday deals. Years ago, I was against medical insurance for pets. Policies were expensive, choices were limited and not enough medical conditions were covered to justify the premiums.

My opinion has changed.

As healthcare expenses have skyrocketed, pet parents have become vulnerable to financial risks that come with major illnesses and emergencies, some that add up to thousands of dollars. Without insurance, an increasing number of people have had to make heartbreaking decisions when up against the potential financial impact of cost-prohibitive medical treatments that could have prolonged the lives of their pets.

The pet insurance industry has grown 13% every year since 2009. Most likely a result of the Great Recession as American families have limited ability to take on large pet-related health costs. It’s best today to mitigate risk through the use of insurance.

Search for a policy using www.petinsurancereview.com. The site has a helpful ‘compare pet insurance features’ grid which outlines reimbursement amounts (after deductibles), payout caps, deductible amounts, monthly costs, limits and items not covered.

Keep in mind – it costs more to insure dogs, pre-existing conditions will generally not be covered (so best to obtain coverage while your pet is healthy), you will pay a deductible and the most policies do not cover preventative maintenance like vaccines, heartworm prevention and annual checkups. The ones that do are not worth the higher premiums.

Monitor what you spend on holiday novelties and outfits. The cost of holiday-themed toys and cute outfits can dramatically eat into your budget. It’s not uncommon for pet parents to splurge on holiday-inspired garb without a second thought to price. Pet retailers will sell out of most of their inventory weeks or months ahead of the holiday. They rarely need to place the merchandise on sale which shows how passionate we are about dressing up our pets for the holidays.

Your best bet to save big bucks on holiday dress-up and goodies is to search deals online and purchase items post-holiday or off-season. I discovered the best clearance deals at www.doggieclothesline.com, www.baxterboo.com and www.petmountain.com.

Tis’ the season to avoid big veterinary bills. We have a tendency to overindulge during the holidays. Sweets (especially chocolate), turkey bones, adult holiday beverages and fatty, spicy leftovers may sound good, but they can cause health issues (some dangerous) for pets and unforeseen expenses for us. Seasonal plants and decorations accidently ingested can cause health issues, too.

Holiday safety tips are available at www.aspca.org. Just type in the word ‘holiday’ in the search box adjacent to the donation link.

And speaking of donations:

Consider a charitable gift to a pet-friendly organization. Whether it’s the ASPCA, a local animal shelter, or an organization that spay-neuters homeless dogs and cats like SNAP in Houston, a 501(c)(3) non-profit agency may make you eligible for a tax deduction.

Charitable contributions are deductible if you itemize. Generally, contributions can be deducted up to 50% of adjusted gross income for qualified public charities. Consult IRS publication 506, your tax advisor or ask a representative for the organization you wish to benefit.

Pets are family. Unfortunately, they’re also becoming luxuries for some households as costs to keep them healthy and happy continue to trend higher than the general rate of inflation.

A money-smart attitude will keep you out of the financial dog house year round.

cat holiday